Chances Of Us Recession In 2024 Usa. She thinks there’s a 65% chance of a mild recession in 2024 and predicts the unemployment rate will rise to 5% by the third quarter. Employers have slowed hiring, adding an average of about 170,000 jobs each month for the last three months, and just 114,000 in july, versus 267,000 a month.
Recession odds are much higher for the end of next year. In july, the federal reserve staff announced that they were no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, marking a sharp departure from earlier projections.